Using statistics to study genealogy
My ancestry research has come to dead end at the year 1808. There seems to be no paper trail beyond the birth of my 4th great grandfather. Unfortunately the last name is fairly common. I have no way of connecting him to anyone with that last name other than I know where he was born. There are lots of people with this last name in his birth state. I wonder if any statistical experts could show the likelihood of his being the descendant of any of the people with that name.
There is another road block with him and his son's father in law. Two men with identical names lived in Livingston County, Mo. in 1840. Two men with identical names lived in or near Jackson County Ohio in 1850. The ages match in the 1840 census of both men but the children don't match up completely. Both men I know moved to Livingston County in the early 1850's from Jackson Ohio. What are the chances of this being a coincidence? Could they have gone back and forth? One I can't find on the 1840 census in Ohio in Jackson County Ohio. I see the same person listed on successive pages on the 1850 census so I know people can be listed twice.
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Re: Using statistics to study genealogy
Have you used land and or probate records to discover more convincing proof of your ancestors? Land records may name a spouse or other family member that you already know about. The same with probate records. Records, which may include wills, of not only the target of your search, but records of other close family members, that you already have proof for, that may mention your sought after ancestor. Keep digging.
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Re: Using statistics to study genealogy
Where can I find these documents other than the BLM site?
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Re: Using statistics to study genealogy
Google search for the Recorder's office and Probate, or just Court office in each county. Make telephone contact with each office and you'll find out what you'll have to do. It probably won't be easy if you can't go to these places in person. Also, consider local libraries, or libraries at the county seat to see what historical and genealogical resources they may have or know about. Also, check LDS sites to find out what microfilms may be available for land and probate records for the areas you are searching. This all will take some time and patience.
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Re: Using statistics to study genealogy
Very sound advice upthread - I have used such sources to differentiate people of the same name living in the same area. Obituaries in local newspapers usually contain a lot of useful information on parents' names and previous moves of the family.
I have found one instance of a family being recorded in two location in a census - it coincided with them migrating from one state to another and the lead party was enumerated in both states, but the rest of the family only in the first state.
Geographical distributions of surnames can be useful pointers to possible origins (and it has been very useful when I've been tracing unusual surnames) but there is always a chance that your ancestor is the statistical quirk - it would be a huge use of time to try and trace all families of a certain name in the hope that your ancestor was part of the majority.
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