This is a real long shot, but could this old saying possibly be a remnant of ancient Irish/Scottish ceremonies? I read about this in a book about the recovery of a sacrificial victim from a bog in northern England. Back when the Celts used a do a human sacrifice every year, they would bake little pieces of bread, one of which would be baked twice until it was burnt. Then everyone who was a potential victim (selected from the young people of the community) would draw a piece of bread. He who drew the burnt piece of bread would be the sacrifice. This book (I think it was called 'The Death of a Prince') said that symbolic echoes of this old ritual could be traced in children's games that were performed in rural England up into the late 1800's. So it is certainly possible that a verbal reference could survive into the 1900's. In that case it would mean don't make someone else a victim, or your turn will come soon.