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MRCA Y-DNA Accuracy

Replies: 8

Re: MRCA Y-DNA Accuracy

Posted: 15 Nov 2013 2:01PM GMT
Classification: Query
Edited: 15 Nov 2013 2:23PM GMT
They appear to be reporting the most likely estimate. Normally, when a single value is reported, it is the median (50% cumulative probability). However, the probabilities are similar over wide ranges. You can use Doug McDonald's calculator to get an idea of what the distributions look like. Note that he uses transmission events (meioses), instead of generations. It is necessary to divide by 2 to convert to the latter. People should use 43 markers for Ancestry, since DYS19b and DYS464e and DS464f usually do not show up, and a mutation rate of .002.

http://www.dna-project.clan-donald-usa.org/tmrca.htm

FTDNA provides guidelines based on TMRCA. Most people find them more useful than the actual numbers. They are in the FAQs.





SubjectAuthorDate Posted
dwohl13 12 Nov 2013 8:19PM GMT 
Robert Staffo... 15 Nov 2013 9:01PM GMT 
Robert Staffo... 15 Nov 2013 10:04PM GMT 
dwohl13 17 Nov 2013 1:33PM GMT 
wmlake1 22 Nov 2013 8:41AM GMT 
Robert Staffo... 23 Nov 2013 8:43PM GMT 
dwohl13 24 Nov 2013 2:33AM GMT 
Robert Staffo... 24 Nov 2013 4:33PM GMT 
Robert Staffo... 24 Nov 2013 5:23PM GMT 
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