The topic is drifting pretty far off. I think a new thread, on the accuracy, or lack of it, of Ancestry's percentage numbers would be a useful, informative, and perhaps effective topic.
I say this knowing that Ancestry doesn't seem to pay much attention to anything we write here, except to delete messages they find too irritating.
As for my own results: I have some that correlate well, and on the other hand some that show high % for a link that seems most likely to be 6th cousin -- which, in the line we're talking about, is the late 1700's.
Even actual segment data can give misleading guidance, sadly. But at least if we had actual segment data we'd have something to start with. "Very low confidence" buys no bananas.
Segment match data -- "when, or why not?"