You aren't the only one who appears to be stuck on this line. In the DISBYT database (constructed from families submitted by members of the Swedish genealogy society, DIS) is only one Påvel Ingevaldsson from Värmland, Visnum parish or any other. The posted family has children Sven Påvelsson and Cathrina Påvelsdotter, along with two other daughters, Sigrid and Brita. No birth information for any of them.
Your research strategy seems to be the only one viable at this point. Maybe if the mantal records are easier to read you could try those for the other nearby parishes as well.
Jeff